by Jim Feist
It's
time! Time for college basketball teams to begin conference tourney play, also
known as separating the contenders from the pretenders. It's important to
understand and closely examine the schedule of college hoop teams. Some teams
start off the season playing a bunch of cream puffs, while others face a
mixture of good and bad teams.
What has taken shape the last few months,
though, is largely conference play. Since conferences are purposely made up of
schools with a similar level of talent, you need to pay attention to how teams
start the season and what their schedule was like. Some schools want to get a
few cheap victories over smaller schools and fatten up their won/lost record early
in the season, while others want to test their teams early to toughen them up
for conference play.
Now it's time for conference tournament
play, essentially the THIRD season of college basketball. The first season was
November and December, non-conference games, plus coaches trying to figure out
their personnel and strengths and weaknesses. The second season has been
conference play the last two months, and now it's tourney time. This is where
the weak links drop off, while the better and more motivated teams
advance. (Follow Jim on Twitter at https://twitter.com/JimFeistSports).
So this time of the season, is it important
to have senior leadership? The last three years, college basketball's champions,
Kansas, Florida and North Carolina, had a combined 13 of 15 starters who were
juniors or seniors. Last season North Carolina had three seniors and two
juniors in the starting lineup when they whipped Michigan State for the title,
89-72. Clearly, having that kind of an edge in experience can be an important
factor, though it isn't everything, especially with more college athletes
leaving earlier for the pros.
The two years prior to those teams, Florida
and North Carolina had starting fives with no seniors. Seven years ago,
Syracuse's Jim Boeheim combined with a gifted group of freshmen and sophomores
to win the NCAA title. The Orangemen upset Kansas in a thrilling finale, 81-78,
with a starting five of two freshmen (F Carmelo Anthony, G Billy Edelin), two
sophomores (C Craig Forth, F Hakim Warrick) and only one senior (G Keith
Duany). The kids played like veterans
for the Orangemen and note that Syracuse was 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS on the road. No
nerves away from home for the kids, straight up and against the number!
In the final three tournament games they
were a +3, +3 and +5 dog to Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas and won them all
straight up (+200 in the title game on the money-line). We are in an era with
fewer seniors in college hoops, but let's not downplay the value of veteran
leadership, as the Tar Heels showcased last season. (Follow Jim on Facebook at http://bit.ly/bS1PYT)
One characteristic that successful
handicappers possess is perspective. In the world of 11-to-10, it's essential
to maintain an even keel: one can't get too high over a big point spread
victory, or too low when lady luck drops a curveball on a game you have
isolated from every angle as a strong play. Perspective is important as college
basketball tournament play gets underway, because what Syracuse did in 2003,
with so many youngsters, is not that common.
The 2006 Florida team had four junior
starters who had been together for a while, then came back the next year and
repeated. North Carolina in 2005 had three rock solid juniors in Ray Felton,
Sean May and Rashard McCants. In 2004, UConn had senior guard Taliek Brown and
star junior center Emeka Okafur.
If you're looking for a team that might win
it all, history suggests talent, depth, good coaching AND experienced
leadership are four key ingredients for success in March. So, yes, generally
speaking, junior and senior leadership are important assets to have during
conference tournament play and the upcoming Big Dance.
NCAA Champions:
2009
North Carolina (3 senior starters, 2 juniors)
2008
Kansas (2 junior starters, 2 seniors)
2007
Florida (4 junior starters, 1 senior)
2006
Florida (4 junior starters)
2005
North Carolina (3 junior starters, Felton, McCants, May)
2004
UConn (1 key senior, Taliek Brown, junior Emeka Okafur)
2003
Syracuse (Starters: 2 frosh, 2 soph, 1 senior)
2002
Maryland (2 key seniors, Lonnie Baxter, Juan Dixon)
2001
Duke (1 key senior, Shane Battier)
2000
Michigan State (Starters: 3 seniors, 2 juniors)
1999
Connecticut (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1998
Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 3 juniors)
1997
Arizona (Starters: 3 juniors)
1996
Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1995
UCLA (Starters: 3 seniors)